Is Thomas Frank's Future at Tottenham in Doubt? A Look at the Numbers
Is Thomas Frank's Future at Tottenham in Doubt?
Tottenham's Champions League position may offer some respite, but it cannot save them from the mounting pressure on Thomas Frank. The underlying numbers paint a grim picture, and there's little reason to believe Frank can turn things around.
Many Tottenham Hotspur observers have long argued that Frank isn't the right manager for the team. After a decent start to the season, Spurs have sunk to 14th in the Premier League table, following a run of just two wins in 13 games. The situation has become so toxic that fans are clashing with players, booing the manager before matches, and many have lost all hope. Tuesday night's Champions League win over Borussia Dortmund provided a rare glimmer of hope, but it cannot mask the team's myriad of problems.
The Dortmund Win: A Rare Moment of Hope
The 2-0 win over Dortmund was a rare moment of hope for Spurs fans. Despite being a goal down and fully in control by the time Dortmund were reduced to 10 men, Spurs fully deserved their victory. However, even though the result can be attributed to Daniel Svensson's red card in the 26th minute, there were still plenty of positives to take from the game. With only 11 available senior outfielders, Spurs played some of the best football we've seen under Frank, moving up to fourth in the Champions League table overnight.
The Problem: Domestic Struggles
However, as was the case last season, when Tottenham won the Europa League but finished 17th in the Premier League, progress in Europe cannot mask their domestic struggles. The final straw for Frank came a long time ago, with a run of dismal displays much like the five-game winless streak since Spurs' previous victory, a 1-0 win at Crystal Palace in late December.
The Run of Poor Performances
In the time between Spurs winning at Selhurst Park and then beating Dortmund this week, they had an awful time of it. They failed to build on early leads against teams they would have been expected to beat (Sunderland and Bournemouth); lost to teams who had previously gone months without a win (Bournemouth and West Ham); crashed out of the FA Cup after a miserable first half left them too much to do to recover (vs Aston Villa); and they put in one of the least inspiring performances you'll ever see, failing to do almost anything of note in one of the dullest matches in recent Premier League memory (vs Brentford).
The xPts Table: A Warning Sign
For many, it was during that run that any lingering hope Frank might be able to turn the sinking ship around vanished entirely. Slowly but surely, the few fans who remained loyal to the idea that mere patience was all that was required have been proved wrong. The Dortmund win should not distract from how bad things have been domestically.
The Parallel with Arsenal
Much of the belief that Frank just needed time was based on the experience of Spurs' now-thriving rivals across north London, Arsenal. Arsenal struggled in the league for the first 18 months of Mikel Arteta's reign as manager, finishing eighth in both 2019-20 and 2020-21. However, look at how he has turned it around. Five seasons on, Arsenal are in their fourth straight title battle, and they are huge favourites to win it this season.
The xPts Model: A Tool for Analysis
The xPts model is a useful tool for trying to work out where teams 'deserve' to be in the league. It simulates the number of goals scored by each side in a match based on the xG value of every shot taken, and then simulates every match 10,000 times and assigns points to either team from the proportion of those sims they won, drew and lost. The idea is that over a period of time, xG data can tell us how well or badly a team is creating chances, thus giving a better indication than the actual table of how everyone is really playing.
The Warning Signs: xPts and xG
Throughout Frank's reign, Spurs have persistently overachieved compared to their underlying numbers. After nine games of the season, for example, Spurs were third in the Premier League, but the xPts table had them down in 13th. In other words, their performances were worthy of enough points to be 13th in the league. No team had a bigger difference between their actual and 'expected' positions. This graphic shows that, rather than the 17 points they actually had, their underlying numbers suggested they deserved 11.2 xPts.
The Current Situation: A Far Better Reflection
Knowing what we know now, these were warning signs from back in October that things were going to head south. And so it proved, as Spurs now find themselves 14th in the Premier League, while they are still 13th in the xPts table. They have sunk to a position their underlying numbers suggested was on the cards months ago. The table right now is a far better reflection of Spurs' displays.
The Future: A Brave Decision
The club's hierarchy may stick to their guns and plough on with Frank in the hope that their fortunes turn, possibly because there are so few viable alternatives available right now. However, it would be brave for the club to keep on backing Frank, and doing so will quite possibly be to their own detriment. The numbers at Spurs are very worrying, and they have been for a while. History may look back on them favourably for being so patient in the face of near-unanimous public opinion that Frank had to be sacked. But the numbers tell a different story.
